Farashin ɗanyen mai a kasuwannin duniya ya faɗi sama da dala ɗaya a ranar Alhamis, bayan manyan hukumomin hasashen makamashi sun rage hasashen su kan bukatar mai a duniya a shekarar 2026.
Hukumomin sun danganta raguwar bukatar da tasirin rikicin Amurka da Isra’ila da Iran, wanda ya haifar da matsaloli wajen samar da makamashi da kuma kara farashin man fetur.
Farashin man Brent ya ragu da dala 1.29, kwatankwacin kashi 1.5, zuwa dala 87.69 kan kowace ganga. Haka kuma, man Amurka na West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ya fadi da dala 1.20, ko kashi 1.2, zuwa dala 82 kan kowace ganga.
Kungiyar Kasashe Masu Fitar da Man Fetur (OPEC) ta rage hasashenta kan karuwar bukatar mai a duniya a shekarar 2026 zuwa ganga 580,000 a kowace rana, a rahotonta na wata-wata da aka fitar ranar Laraba.
Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya (IEA) ita ma ta rage hasashenta, inda ta ce yanzu tana sa ran amfani da mai a duniya zai ragu da ganga miliyan 1.6 a kowace rana a bana, sabanin hasashen baya na raguwar ganga miliyan daya a kowace rana.
IEA ta ce takaita samar da man fetur da karin farashin makamashi sakamakon rikicin Amurka da Isra’ila da Iran na daga cikin manyan dalilan da suka kara raunana bukatar mai.
Sai dai, duk da faduwar farashin, rashin samun ci gaba a tattaunawar da ake yi tsakanin Iran da Amurka domin kawo karshen rikicin ya ci gaba da tallafa wa farashin mai.
Shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump, ya ce Amurka tana da “cikakken iko” kan mashigar ruwan Hormuz, yayin da tattaunawar Washington da Tehran ta kasance cikin tsaiko, inda bangarorin biyu ke kara tsaurara matsayinsu.
Amurka ta kuma ci gaba da toshe tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Iran a wani mataki na kara matsin tattalin arziki kan kasar.
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Pakistan, wadda ke kokarin shiga tsakani tsakanin kasashen biyu, ta ce tsarin tattaunawar zaman lafiya ya tsaya cik, ko da yake har yanzu ana iya tsawaita wa’adin cimma yarjejeniyar fahimtar juna tsakanin Amurka da Iran.
Haka kuma, hare-haren da aka kai kan jiragen ruwa a mashigar Hormuz da Bab el-Mandeb sun kara nuna hadarin da ke tattare da jigilar danyen mai da iskar gas daga yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Masana harkar makamashi sun ce duk wata takaita zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa ko barazanar sake kai hare-hare na iya kara kudin inshorar jiragen ruwa tare da tilasta musu amfani da dogayen hanyoyi.
Bankin JPMorgan ya kiyasta cewa duk wata guda da rikicin jigilar mai ya kara tsawaita na iya daga farashin Brent da kusan dala 7 zuwa dala 8 kan kowace ganga. Idan matsalar ta dauki watanni uku, bankin na sa ran farashin Brent zai iya kaiwa matsakaicin dala 114 a wata.
Shi ma Goldman Sachs ya yi gargadin cewa farashin Brent na iya kaiwa dala 120 kan kowace ganga idan matsalar jigilar kayayyaki ta mashigar Hormuz ta ci gaba.
Sai dai bankin ya ce a hasashensa na yau da kullum, tashin hankalin Gabas ta Tsakiya zai ragu daga baya, inda yake sa ran farashin Brent zai koma matsakaicin dala 80 a zangon karshe na shekarar 2026 da kuma kusan dala 75 a shekarar 2027.
Masana sun ce makomar farashin mai za ta dogara ne sosai kan tsawon lokacin da rikicin da matsalolin jigilar kayayyaki za su dauka.
Anindya Banerjee, shugaban binciken kayayyakin masarufi na Kotak Securities, ya ce har yanzu ana sa ran farashin mai zai fara saukowa yayin da ake shiga shekarar 2027, saboda karuwar samar da mai daga kasashen da ba sa cikin yankin rikicin, karin samarwa daga OPEC+, da kuma karuwar samar da mai daga wasu kasashe sakamakon tsadar farashin.