Aƙalla masu kaɗa ƙuri’a miliyan 1.9 ne suka cancanci kaɗa ƙuri’a a zaɓen gwamnan jihar Osun da za a gudanar a yau, Asabar.
Daga cikin mutane 2,339,233 da Hukumar Zaɓe ta Ƙasa (INEC) ta yi wa rajista, 1,906,390 ne suka karɓi katin zaɓe na dindindin (PVC). Sai dai yawan masu rajista kaɗai ba shi ne ke nuna inda zaɓen zai karkata ba.
Abin da ya fi muhimmanci shi ne inda masu zaɓen suke da yawa, adadin waɗanda za su fito, da kuma tazarar ƙuri’un da kowane ɗan takara zai samu.
Ɗan takarar da zai yi nasara dole ne ya samu mafi yawan ƙuri’u, tare da samun aƙalla kashi ɗaya bisa huɗu na ƙuri’un da aka kaɗa aƙalla kashi biyu bisa uku na ƙananan hukumomi 30 na jihar.
Ƙaramar hukumar Osogbo ce ke da mafi yawan masu rajistar zaɓe, inda take da 167,704, wato kashi 7.17 na jimillar masu rajista.
Wadda take mara mata baya itace ƙaramar hukumar Ife East wadda ke da yawan masu rajistar zaɓe 128,515, wato kashi 5.50.
Olorunda na da 123,063, kashi 5.26, yayin da Ife Central na da 122,454, wato kashi 5.24. Iwo na da 106,813, Irewole 96,528, yayin da Ifelodun ke da 94,870. Ƙananan hukumomi 10 da suka fi yawan masu rajista suna da mutane 1,113,813, kusan kashi 47.6 na duk masu rajistar jihar. Hakan na nufin kusan rabin masu zaɓen Osun suna cikin ƙananan hukumomi 10 kacal.
- Zaɓen Osun: An tura DIG, Kwamishinonin Yanansanda 30, da jami’ai 15,000
- Yaduwar ƙwayoyin cuta masu jure maganin rigakafi na ƙara zama barazana ga Duniya
Sai dai yawan masu rajista ba ya nufin dukansu za su fito su kaɗa ƙuri’a. INEC ta ce yawan masu rajista ya tashi daga 1,954,800 zuwa 2,339,233, wato ƙarin mutane 384,433.
Daga cikin sabbin masu rajista, mutane 322,822 ne suka karɓi PVC kafin a tsawaita wa’adin karɓar katin zuwa 31 ga Yuli. Saboda haka, yawan masu rajista na iya baiwa ƙaramar hukuma rinjayen masu zaɓe, amma a ƙarshe fitowar masu kaɗa ƙuri’a ce za ta nuna ainihin ƙarfin yankin a ranar zaɓe.
A Ede, inda Gwamna Ademola Adeleke ya fito, Ede North na da masu rajista 96,644, yayin da Ede South ke da 67,729. Tare da ƙananan hukumomin biyu suna da masu rajista 164,373, kusan kashi bakwai na masu zaɓen jihar.
Wannan ya sa Ede ta kasance ɗaya daga cikin manyan wuraren da za su iya yin tasiri a sakamakon zaɓen.
A Osogbo da Olorunda kuwa, akwai jimillar masu rajista 290,767, wato kashi 12.4 na duk masu rajistar jihar. Idan fitowar masu zaɓe ta yawaita, dubban ƙuri’u da ɗan takara ya samu ko ya rasa a waɗannan yankuna na iya sauya tazarar alƙalumma zabe a jihar.
Yankin Ife ma na da muhimmiyar rawar da zai iya takawa, inda ƙananan hukumomin Ife East, Ife Central da Ife South suke da jimillar masu rajista 317,224, wato kashi 13.6 na masu zaɓen Osun.
Iwo kuma na da 106,813, yayin da yankin Ijesa ke da jimillar masu rajista 332,473 a Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Atakumosa East, Atakumosa West da Obokun. Wannan adadi ya kai kusan kashi 14.2 na duk masu rajistar jihar.
A zaɓen 2022, Adeleke ya doke Gboyega Oyetola na APC da tazarar ƙuri’u 28,344, wannan karon, Adeleke na neman wa’adi na biyu, yayin da APC ke takarar da Bola Oyebamiji, Najeem Salaam kuma ke wakiltar ADC, tare da wasu ‘yan takara 11.
Ko da yake, akwai mazaɓu dake da tasiri a zaɓukan baya, Irewole na da masu rajista 96,528, Ifelodun 94,870, Ejigbo 87,676, Oriade 84,283, Odo-Otin 82,574, Boripe 81,067 da Ayedaade 77,649.
Haka kuma Egbedore na da 67,440, Irepodun 67,131, Ife North 65,718 da Isokan 65,379.
Ko ƙananan hukumomi kamar Orolu, Ola-Oluwa, Atakumosa West, Boluwaduro da Ifedayo suna da dubban masu rajista?
A zaɓen da ake sa ran zai kasance mai tsauri, ƙuri’un da za a samu daga waɗannan ƙananan hukumomi da matsakaitan ƙananan hukumomi na iya zama su ne suka samar da tazarar da za ta tantance wanda zai lashe zaɓen.